Ida, the ninth-named storm of the 2021 Atlantic season, which meteorologists have been monitoring since early this week when it was a disorganized cluster of showers and thunderstorms, strengthened quickly on Thursday after it was designated Tropical Depression Nine by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) just before noon.
As the depression was gathering strength over the Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica on Thursday, hurricane hunters from the United States Air Force were sent to investigate the growing storm, though poor weather briefly caused the mission to be delayed. Tropical storm warnings were issued for the Cayman Islands as well as parts of Cuba.
On Thursday afternoon, the tropical storm was moving to the northwest at a speed of 14 mph and had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. It was 100 miles west-southwest of Negril, Jamaica, and 130 miles southeast of Grand Cayman Island.
The latest forecast from AccuWeather meteorologists indicates that a scenario in which the storm will continue to increase in strength and take a path into the central Gulf of Mexico is now more likely than had been discussed earlier in the week. The chances for Ida to make landfall in southern Mexico were dimming, with a greater focus now being paid to parts of the western and central Gulf Coast of the U.S.
An area of high pressure near the Carolina coast is forecast to weaken just enough to allow the storm to move northwestward into the U.S. The remaining circulation around the high is likely to be enough to keep the storm moving along while over the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.
The storm is projected to slice across the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, where rapid intensification is possible, as has been the case with several notorious storms in recent years such as Hurricane Michael in 2018, which struck the Florida Panhandle, and Hurricane Laura in 2020, which slammed southwestern Louisiana. There were a record 11 named storms that struck the U.S. in 2020.
There have been five named systems that have reached land in the U.S. so far this season, but none were hurricanes at the time of landfall.
AccuWeather forecasters are warning residents and businesses from the Texas coast to Louisiana and the panhandles of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida, as well as fishing and petroleum operations, to closely monitor the progress of the developing situation as there may be little time to prepare once the system forms, begins a definitive path and strengthens rapidly along the way.
Rough seas are expected to build outward from the south-central Gulf to the northwest, north-central and northeastern parts of the Gulf Coast and offshore waters beginning on Saturday. Depending on the exact track and size and strength of the storm, conditions may rapidly deteriorate. The first rain bands may arrive along portions of the central Gulf Coast as early as late Saturday night or Sunday.
The system of interest was a broad area of showers and thunderstorms south of Cuba as of early Thursday morning. However, satellite images revealed a steady uptick in showers and thunderstorms over the Caribbean since the start of this week, and the system was upgraded to Tropical Depression Nine at around midday on Thursday. Wind shear and dry air on one side of the system had been inhibiting development into early Thursday, but that began to change.
"The atmospheric environment is expected to rapidly become more conducive for this system to organize and strengthen," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said.
Sea-surface temperatures in the northwestern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico could aid a strengthening storm, as they are well into the 80s F in many areas.
Water temperatures in the Gulf will play a key role in allowing the tropical system to intensify rapidly.
"Unfortunately, it just seems like it's making a beeline toward the Louisiana coast," AccuWeather Chief Broadcast Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said on AccuWeather's Weather Insider podcast, cautioning that the system hadn't formed yet early on Thursday so the path wasn't a certainty.
While in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, additional rapid strengthening is likely with the potential for the system to become not only a hurricane but perhaps the second major hurricane, which is Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, of the Atlantic season. A major hurricane has maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. Thus far, Grace has been the only hurricane to reach Category 3 force, with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph just prior to striking Mexico for a second time on Aug. 21.
How quickly the system ramps up may determine where it makes landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast.
After watching how the system behaves in the northwestern Caribbean, forecasters will be able to see a clearer picture of where the system will make landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast and whether the timing of landfall will be later Sunday or in the early hours on Monday.
"Near where the center of the storm moves ashore, wind gusts of 115-120 mph are possible and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 130 mph is anticipated," AccuWeather Meteorologist Randy Adkins said.
In terms of rainfall, a general 4-8 inches is forecast along the path of the storm nearest the Gulf Coast with locally higher amounts -- if the storm maintains a steady forward speed.
Should the storm's progress slow down over the southern U.S., much heavier rainfall is possible. Some areas could receive an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 20 inches over the course of several days.
Louisiana, which may end up in the crosshairs of the latest budding tropical system, was heavily targeted by direct strikes during the record 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Tropical Storm Cristobal, Category 4 Hurricane Laura, Category 2 Hurricane Delta and Category 3 Hurricane Zeta all made landfall in the state, but Hurricane Marco had weakened to below tropical depression status prior to moving ashore.
Through late August, four tropical storms -- Danny, Elsa, Fred, and Henri -- have made landfall on U.S. soil. And back in early June, Tropical Storm Claudette impacted the U.S., but in an unusual meteorological twist, it was named a tropical storm by the NHC while it was over Louisiana, so it never made a traditional landfall.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
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Ida, the ninth-named storm of the 2021 Atlantic season, which meteorologists have been monitoring since early this week when it was a disorganized cluster of showers and thunderstorms, strengthened quickly on Thursday after it was designated Tropical Depression Nine by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) just before noon.
As the depression was gathering strength over the Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica on Thursday, hurricane hunters from the United States Air Force were sent to investigate the growing storm, though poor weather briefly caused the mission to be delayed. Tropical storm warnings were issued for the Cayman Islands as well as parts of Cuba.
On Thursday afternoon, the tropical storm was moving to the northwest at a speed of 14 mph and had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. It was 100 miles west-southwest of Negril, Jamaica, and 130 miles southeast of Grand Cayman Island.
The latest forecast from AccuWeather meteorologists indicates that a scenario in which the storm will continue to increase in strength and take a path into the central Gulf of Mexico is now more likely than had been discussed earlier in the week. The chances for Ida to make landfall in southern Mexico were dimming, with a greater focus now being paid to parts of the western and central Gulf Coast of the U.S.
An area of high pressure near the Carolina coast is forecast to weaken just enough to allow the storm to move northwestward into the U.S. The remaining circulation around the high is likely to be enough to keep the storm moving along while over the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.
The storm is projected to slice across the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, where rapid intensification is possible, as has been the case with several notorious storms in recent years such as Hurricane Michael in 2018, which struck the Florida Panhandle, and Hurricane Laura in 2020, which slammed southwestern Louisiana. There were a record 11 named storms that struck the U.S. in 2020.
There have been five named systems that have reached land in the U.S. so far this season, but none were hurricanes at the time of landfall.
AccuWeather forecasters are warning residents and businesses from the Texas coast to Louisiana and the panhandles of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida, as well as fishing and petroleum operations, to closely monitor the progress of the developing situation as there may be little time to prepare once the system forms, begins a definitive path and strengthens rapidly along the way.
Rough seas are expected to build outward from the south-central Gulf to the northwest, north-central and northeastern parts of the Gulf Coast and offshore waters beginning on Saturday. Depending on the exact track and size and strength of the storm, conditions may rapidly deteriorate. The first rain bands may arrive along portions of the central Gulf Coast as early as late Saturday night or Sunday.
The system of interest was a broad area of showers and thunderstorms south of Cuba as of early Thursday morning. However, satellite images revealed a steady uptick in showers and thunderstorms over the Caribbean since the start of this week, and the system was upgraded to Tropical Depression Nine at around midday on Thursday. Wind shear and dry air on one side of the system had been inhibiting development into early Thursday, but that began to change.
"The atmospheric environment is expected to rapidly become more conducive for this system to organize and strengthen," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said.
Sea-surface temperatures in the northwestern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico could aid a strengthening storm, as they are well into the 80s F in many areas.
Water temperatures in the Gulf will play a key role in allowing the tropical system to intensify rapidly.
"Unfortunately, it just seems like it's making a beeline toward the Louisiana coast," AccuWeather Chief Broadcast Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said on AccuWeather's Weather Insider podcast, cautioning that the system hadn't formed yet early on Thursday so the path wasn't a certainty.
While in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, additional rapid strengthening is likely with the potential for the system to become not only a hurricane but perhaps the second major hurricane, which is Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, of the Atlantic season. A major hurricane has maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. Thus far, Grace has been the only hurricane to reach Category 3 force, with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph just prior to striking Mexico for a second time on Aug. 21.
How quickly the system ramps up may determine where it makes landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast.
After watching how the system behaves in the northwestern Caribbean, forecasters will be able to see a clearer picture of where the system will make landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast and whether the timing of landfall will be later Sunday or in the early hours on Monday.
"Near where the center of the storm moves ashore, wind gusts of 115-120 mph are possible and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 130 mph is anticipated," AccuWeather Meteorologist Randy Adkins said.
In terms of rainfall, a general 4-8 inches is forecast along the path of the storm nearest the Gulf Coast with locally higher amounts -- if the storm maintains a steady forward speed.
Should the storm's progress slow down over the southern U.S., much heavier rainfall is possible. Some areas could receive an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 20 inches over the course of several days.
Louisiana, which may end up in the crosshairs of the latest budding tropical system, was heavily targeted by direct strikes during the record 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Tropical Storm Cristobal, Category 4 Hurricane Laura, Category 2 Hurricane Delta and Category 3 Hurricane Zeta all made landfall in the state, but Hurricane Marco had weakened to below tropical depression status prior to moving ashore.
Through late August, four tropical storms -- Danny, Elsa, Fred, and Henri -- have made landfall on U.S. soil. And back in early June, Tropical Storm Claudette impacted the U.S., but in an unusual meteorological twist, it was named a tropical storm by the NHC while it was over Louisiana, so it never made a traditional landfall.
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Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
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